Annual population estimates by age and sex

The baseline count of the resident population is based on the 2011 census.

The change in the resident population in each subsequent year is estimated using data on numbers of births and deaths in Jersey, information on school and pre-school populations, and employment information.

Estimates of the population size by age and gender are produced by applying the latest age-gender distributions of population projections (see Population projections, 2016 report, net +1,000 migration scenario) to the estimate of the total population. This method generally produces populations in each age / sex group which contain non whole-numbers. In this table, all numbers have been rounded to the nearest whole number.

Due to the methodology which uses the change in sub-populations to estimate the change in the size of the total population from the baseline of the 2011 Census, the estimates become less robust the further from the census year. By 2018, the figures should be considered ‘moderately robust’. Sensitivity analyses have indicated that the uncertainties around the estimate in net migration (and therefore in the total population size) in 2018 are approximately +/-400.

The latest population estimate report is available here on gov.je.